Gold News (WARNING) vom 10. März 2025

20:00 EET: Gold -1% bei $2.880,80 / Bitcoin -4,6% bei $78.583,77 / DAX -1,7% bei 22.620,95 / S&P500 -2,8% bei 5.607 / NASDAQ -4,3% bei 17.435 / DJIA -2% bei 41.942

20:15 EET: zerohedge @zerohedge - *MUSK SAYS X UNDER 'MASSIVE CYBERATTACK'

20:20 EET: zerohedge @zerohedge - TSLA down 50% from all time high on Dec 17

20:25 EET: Alexander Dugin @AGDugin - Deep State attacks http://x.com/ and Elon's assets.

20:30 EET: zerohedge @zerohedge - Remember META's 20 straight days of gains? It's gone... all gone. Also, all 2025 gains are gone too.

20:35 EET: Max Brown @MaxBrownBTC - TRUMP WANTS TO CRASH THE STOCK MARKET. THE US GOVERNMENT HAS TO REFINANCE $7 TRILLION OF DEBT IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS. THERE'S NO WAY TRUMP WANTS TO REFINANCE IT AT CURRENT 10-YR YIELDS. THIS IS WHY HE'S CRASHING THE STOCK MARKET AND PUMPING THE BOND PRICES. AS BOND PRICES WILL GO UP, YIELDS WILL COME DOWN AND THE US GOVERNMENT WILL BE ABLE TO REFINANCE THEIR DEBT AT CHEAP. NOT ONLY THAT, LOWER BOND YIELDS WILL ALSO PUSH THE FED TO DO RATE CUTS WHICH IS BULLISH FOR RISK-ON ASSETS. SO, DON'T PANIC OVER THE SHORT- TERM AND LOOK AT THE LONGER PICTURE.

12:51 EET: Peter Ziemann ¡Adiós Alemania! @peter_ziemann N-TV: 'Trump schließt Rezession nicht aus' Zum Kapitalismus gehört auch Scheitern. Jahrzehnte lang haben Politiker mit ihren Notenbanken das unterdrückt. Und für jeden die Illusion geschaffen, es könne nur aufwärts ggf. mit einer Pause geben. Aber das System muss sich ab und zu selbst reinigen: Auch von Bürgern mit ihren Geschäfts-/Lebensmodellen, die dann von der Mittelschicht in die Unterschicht absteigen müssen. Kriege und Konflikte der letzten Jahre sind anstelle der reinigenden Wirkung des Kapitalismus - Rezession - getreten. Dort erfolgt jetzt der Abstieg in die Unterschicht oder unter die Erde auf brutale Art und Weise. Mit echter Zerstörung. Die USA versuchen den alten kapitalistischen Weg. Europa hat sich für den Kriegsweg entschieden. Ich bin mir noch nicht so richtig klar, wie sich Osteuropa verhalten wird: Wie Polen, die baltischen Staaten, Tschechien auf Seiten des Westens als eher treibende Kraft des Kriegs? Oder wie Ungarn, die Slovakei, vielleicht Rumänien & Bulgarien in einer Grauzone, deren Spannungen sich in einem Bürgerkriegen entladen könnten? Ich beobachte die Entwicklung in Rumänien sehr genau. Gerade die rassische Homogenität der Ukrainer gibt Grund zur Hoffnung für die osteuropäischen Staaten. Trotz massiver Angriffe auf Infrastruktur und Lebensgrundlagen ist es dort nämlich nicht zu dem von Prepper befürchteten Kampf jeder-gegen-jeden mit Warlord wie in Afghanistan gekommen. https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Trump-schliesst-Rezession-nicht-aus-article25617753.html

09:46 EET: Peter Ziemann¡Adiós Alemania! @peter_ziemann - Bestimmten Personen und ihren Posts folge ich nur, weil sie oft als Kontra-Indikator taugen. Wenn man sich nur in seinen Echokammern mit 'Gleichgesinnten' bewegt, kommt das Pippi-Langstrumpf-Syndrom zum tragen: 'Ich mach mit die Welt, wie sie mir gefällt.'

Jim Cramer - The market is trying to take into account a rollback in every single positive expectation for any stock or crypto market that the election of Trump might have created. I talk about the denouement and what it means in tonight's just released Sunday think piece. It's not as bad as you think.

21:15 EET: The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter - The REAL reason markets are crashing: Over the last 2 months, the S&P 500 and crypto have erased a combined -$5.5 TRILLION of market cap. We have just witnessed one of the most SUDDEN shifts in sentiment since 2020. What's happening? Let us explain.

Let's begin with a timeline: Markets have known the trade war was coming since as early as mid-2024. In December, tariff threats ramped up, and we saw many all time highs in the S&P 500 after that. Even after the trade war began on February 1st, we saw MORE all time highs.

Since February 20th, the S&P 500 has erased a whopping -$4.5 TRILLION in market cap. That's ~$350 billion in market cap PER DAY over the last 13 days straight. The Nasdaq is now just 8% away from entering a bear market for the first time since 2022. What changed so quickly?

The trade war is simply the scapegoat. The real reason behind the market's decline is a sudden shift in risk appetite. We have gone from Extreme Greed to Extreme Fear in a matter of days. Positioning was so polarized, that we have swung in the complete opposite direction.

Where it gets even more interesting is that institutional capital exited BEFORE this decline in tech stocks. Heading into 2025, hedge fund exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks fell to a 22-month low. Take a look at the divergence between the Nasdaq and fund positioning.

On February 9th, institutional investors built the LARGEST Ethereum short position in history. This came as retail investors piled into crypto on hopes of a US Strategic Reserve. Crypto is down over $1 trillion even as almost ALL of the bullish Trump promises came to fruition.

Crypto is even more supportive of our thesis: Take a look at all of the bullish crypto developments that have happened over the last 2 months. Even the US Bitcoin Reserve became a "sell the news" event. So, what changed? Clearly, a sudden shift in risk appetite.

In December 2024, sentiment was so bullish that Apollo published their risks in 2025 with a 0% chance of a US recession. Meanwhile, they saw a 90% chance of tariffs coming in 2025. Markets have known about tariffs for months, the decline is NOT entirely due to tariffs.

Fear & Greed Indices in crypto and stocks have hit their lowest since the 2022 bear market this month. Last year, crypto saw Extreme Greed levels of 92+; it's now at a polar opposite of 17. Sentiment is the ultimate driver of price in ANY market, regardless of fundamentals.

When sentiment shifts so quickly, outflows hit record highs and cause "flash crashes" as we have seen. In the last week of February, crypto funds posted a record $2.6 BILLION outflow for the week. This is ~$500 million above the previous record set in 2024.

Last week, US small cap funds saw $3.5 billion of outflows, the most since December 18th. Mid-cap funds saw outflows of $2.1 billion. Sectoral funds saw $4.5 billion of outflows which includes $1.9 billion from technology duns alone. Once again, a SHIFT in positioning.

This means that getting ahead of shifts in sentiment will be the most profitable strategy of 2025. And, as the Volatility Index, $VIX, surges over 70% in one month, the swings are going to broaden. We expect to see 1,000+ point swings in the Dow become a regular occurrence.

21:30 EET: Dow tumbles 900 points, S&P 500 heads for worst day in 2 years on recession fears

The “Magnificent Seven” cohort — once the stars of this bull market — led the declines Monday as investors dumped the group for perceived safer plays. Teslatumbled 13%, heading for its worst day since 2020, while AlphabetMeta and AI darling Nvidia lost around 5%. Palantir, another once-loved stock by retail traders, was down more than 10%.

21:35 EET: 

23:10 EET: Nick Sortor @nicksortor - #BREAKING: Elon Musk just announced the IP addresses from the possible cyberattack on 𝕏 originated in UKRAINE SO FREAKING PREDICTABLE.

23:40 EET: Das Problem mit X ist wohl gelöst. Und die Märkte haben sich auf niedrigen Niveau beruhigt. Wir beenden das jetzt hier.